CAPITAL MARKET REACTIONS TO THE COVID 19 PANDEMIC
Woro Umayi
Ananda1, Hari Gursida2,
Yohanes Indrayono3
Universitas Pakuan, Bogor, Indonesia
[email protected]1, �[email protected]2, [email protected]3
ABSTRACT
This study aims to determine and analyze the
capital market's reaction to the Covid 19 Pandemic in biotechnology companies
listed on the Nasdaq. The method used in this study uses a
type of quantitative method. This study uses an event study. The sampling method
in this study was carried out using a non-probability random sampling approach.
The announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic by the WHO and the commitment to
produce a COVID-19 vaccine have had a significant impact on abnormal stock
returns and trading volume activities of biotech companies listed on the NASDAQ
stock market. However, there is no significant effect on the liquidity of
biotech company stocks. In addition, the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic
also affected the volatility of biotech company stocks. In contrast, the
announcement of a commitment to producing a COVID-19 vaccine did not
significantly impact the volatility of biotech company stocks. So, it shows
that the NASDAQ stock market reacts sensitively to announcements about the
COVID-19 pandemic and efforts to produce COVID-19 vaccines by biotech
companies. This shows that the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the
stock market, especially in the biotechnology sector. The event study approach
is used to test the market with a semi-strong form of market efficiency by
demonstrating that the stock price reflects all published information (all
publicly available information).
Keywords: biotechnology,
capital, covid-19, stocks, vaccines.
Corresponding Author: Woro
Umayi Ananda
E-mail: [email protected]
INTRODUCTION
The World Health
Organization (WHO), or the world health organization, on March 11, 2020,
declared the outbreak of the new coronavirus COVID 19 a global pandemic (Sohrabi et al.,
2020). At the press conference, WHO Director-General Dr.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated that over the past two weeks, the number of
cases outside China has increased 13-fold, and there has been a three-fold
increase in cases in several countries. WHO asks the countries in the world to take
precautionary measures against the virus (Cucinotta
& Vanelli, 2020).
Protecting communities and health systems
from spreading virus outbreaks requires widespread isolation, containment, and
closure measures. The increase in COVID-19 cases in China resulted in the
closure of factories in the Wuhan area and the dismissal of many workers aimed
at reducing the harmful effects of the virus. This impacts economic losses in
China (Ozdurak et
al., 2020).
Apart from China, a high number of cases of COVID-19 have been
reported worldwide, especially in the United States (US), Italy, and Spain.
Every country worldwide has imposed lockdowns and social restrictions to
minimize the transmission of this deadly virus. The social restriction policy
adopted has hampered the economic activities of the global community (Indrayono, 2021).
The global economy is projected to
contract sharply by 3% in 2020 as a result of the pandemic. Data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) (Ozdurak et al., 2020) states that the world economy is facing its lowest growth rate
since 2009 due to the coronavirus outbreak.
Figure 1.1 shows stock indices in several
countries dropping to their lowest level on March 23, 2020. Charts of the main
stock indices of the US, UK, Germany, France, Russia, Japan, Hong Kong, China,
Singapore, Australia, India, South Korea, Brazil, and Mexico for the period
January 1 to mid-May 2020, when the COVID 19 pandemic was still occurring
throughout the world (Indrayono, 2021).
Figure 1. Stock Indices in several
Countries
During the Financial Crisis (Indrayono, 2021)
The
consequence of the pandemic event was increased panic and market downturns. The situation is deteriorating due to the
spread of the disease beyond geographical boundaries between countries and
continents. Returns on relatively safe commodities, such as gold (albeit the
most volatile), turned negative as the coronavirus spread across the US (Indrayono, 2021).
Consumer
and corporate panic in all markets disrupts consumption habits and creates
anomalies. The decline in global stock
indices showed the global financial market response. Decisions made by
investors on the spread of bad news show financial contagion like the contagion
phenomenon. Adverse effects on the financial sector are the reaction of several
sectors and regions to an economic shock. The previous global financial crisis
showed that the financial sector was sensitive to shocks (Tiryaki & Ekinci,
2015) (Ozdurak et al., 2020).
Panyagometh, K. (2020) shows that most of the securities in the
Thai stock market have been affected by the pandemic, as reflected in the
abnormal returns and stock volatility compared to the period before the
COVID-19 outbreak. The same research results are also shown on the Turkish
stock exchange (G�KER et al., 2020), China (Al-Awadhi et al., 2020): (Liu et al., 2020), Canada, and the United States.
(Ozdurak et al., 2020) produced a similar study and adopted the EGARCH method to examine the volatility that varies
over time for changes in cases of transmission of COVID-19.
Most countries impose movement restrictions (lockdowns) to
contain the spread of the disease. This policy has a broad economic impact
affecting trading volume activities. The COVID-19 pandemic has far-reaching
economic consequences due to the highly contagious nature of the virus. At the start of the pandemic, the financial impact arose mainly due to
the disruption of manufacturing issues on the supply side (Zaremba et al., 2021) �(Khan et al., 2020).
Market volatility is also influenced by the global pharmaceutical and
biotechnology sector related to health crises such as infectious diseases due
to the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, it is important to measure the influence
of market behavior and the stock performance of companies operating in the
pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector. In the period following the
announcement of the pandemic, companies in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology
sectors, such as GlaxoSmithKline, Vir Biotechnology, Pfizer Inc., and BiNTech,
decided to invest in the development of coronavirus drugs, including the
creation of a COVID-19 vaccine (Ozdurak et al., 2020).
The
latest data from Eikon, 2020 reveals that the market value of pharmaceutical
and biotechnology stocks increased when President Trump was infected with
COVID-19. Throughout the pandemic, most of the stock markets involved in
vaccines or drugs for COVID-19 were still ahead in terms of stock returns. Figure 2. shows the five best-performing
pharmaceutical and biotechnology stocks since the pandemic's start. Several
biotechnology companies have benefited from the COVID-19 outbreak, such as
Novavax, Moderna, Inivio Pharmaceuticals, and Gilead Sciences. Table 1. shows
several stocks of pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies that have
increased their stock performance during the pandemic.
Figure
2. Stock
Market for Pharmaceutical/Biotech Companies
�for the period January 1 - October 7, 2020
Description: TR%: Total Revenue
Table 1. Market
Value of Pharmaceutical/Biotechnology Company Shares
Pharma
& Biotech Stock Market |
TR%, USD |
Novavax Inc |
2663.8% |
Inovio
Pharmaceuticals Inc |
281.2% |
Moderna Inc |
270.0% |
CanSino
Biologics Inc |
198.4% |
Regeneron
Pharmaceuticals Inc |
57.6% |
Eli Lilly
and Co |
15.0% |
AstraZeneca
PLC |
8.3% |
Johnson
& Johnson |
3.4% |
Gilead
Sciences Inc |
-0.4% |
Pfizer Inc |
-4.1% |
GlaxoSmithKline
PLC |
-20.0% |
Source:
Eikon, 2020
Description: TR%: Total Revenue
Research shows that the COVID-19 pandemic has
affected US biotechnology companies such as Pfizer and Moderna (Pi�eiro-Chousa et al., 2022). The results show that the two companies' volatility
changes from one period to the next. During the pre-COVID period,
corporate volatility was higher than the effect of market volatility on the
previous day, but during the COVID-19 period, the opposite was true. This
research is in line with the study of Baker et al. (2020). This change could be
caused by trading volume activity when there was a policy limiting individual
mobility during COVID-19.
The
current world economic turmoil is a secondary impact of the global health
crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Obstacles
in supply chains and consumer demand hamper national and global economic
growth. The withdrawal of investor funds by selling shares from the stock
exchange, causing the stock market index to drop drastically compared to the
value of its closing price on the same exchange at the end of 2019. Data shows
that world stock exchanges experienced a decline between December 31, 2019, and
March 23, 2020, four days after the world health organization (WHO) declared
the COVID-19 pandemic (Indrayono, 2021). A financial crisis in the stock market is considered to have
occurred when the index declined by more than 20% in developing countries and
35% in emerging markets (Patel & Sarkar, 1998) (Indrayono, 2021). This phenomenon last occurred during the 2008-2009 global
financial crisis. It originated on Wall Street and harmed investors, banks, and
economies worldwide (Indrayono, 2021).
Research shows that the COVID-19 outbreak has negatively affected China's
traditional industries, such as transportation, mining, electricity &
heating, and the environment(Liu et al., 2020). However, the research results also show opportunities for
developing high-tech industries such as manufacturing, information technology,
education, and health that are unaffected significantly. The results align with research (Sayed & Eledum, 2021) on the average stock return for 21 industrial groups in Saudi
Arabia. Three industry groups involving telecommunications, software, and
healthcare moved from negative to positive, while food and staples retail,
pharmaceuticals, and Biotechnology remained positive before and after the
COVID-19 pandemic.
WHO and its partners are committed to accelerating the development
of a COVID-19 vaccine while maintaining the highest safety standards. In the
past, vaccines were developed through a series of steps that could take years.
With the urgent need for a COVID-19 vaccine, unprecedented financial investment
and scientific collaboration are driving changes in vaccine development, such
as concurrent clinical trials of several vaccines.
WHO, as one of the lead agencies along with the Global Alliance
for Vaccines and. Immunization (Gavi) and CEPI (Coalition for Epidemic
Preparedness Innovations), are undertaking a global effort known as COVAX,
which accelerates the discovery of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines by
pooling resources from various countries. Investing in vaccine research and development,
COVAX helps increase vaccine manufacturing capabilities and commitment to
purchase vaccine doses if the vaccine proves safe and effective, to distribute
two billion doses in places around the world where these doses are expected to
be most needed by the end of the year 2021.
COVAX is a vaccine pillar of the
Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator, a global collaboration to
accelerate development, production, and equal access to COVID-19 tests,
treatments, and vaccines. WHO provides global coordination and member country
support in vaccine safety monitoring. WHO is task is to develop target product
profiles for COVID-19 vaccines and provide R&D technical coordination with
COVAX partners; WHO has developed compensation schemes as part of time-limited indemnification commitments and
obligations.
WHO announced the first clinical
trial of the COVID-19 vaccine on March 19, 2022. The first clinical trial is a
form of vaccine production commitment by several institutions and companies to
register the first COVID-19 vaccine and can later be used to receive emergency
use validation from WHO. The list of biotechnology companies to carry out
vaccine production opens the door for countries to accelerate the process of
regulatory approval in their respective countries used as a condition for
importing and administering vaccines. This activity also allows UNICEF to
obtain vaccines for distribution to countries in need.
Investments in research and development carry risks for
pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, the results of clinical trials
being a major inflection point in that process. The
release of clinical trial results is an economically significant event and
has a meaningful effect on the market value of biopharmaceutical companies (Hwang, 2013). Until now, there have not been many research results analyzing
the impact of the pandemic and the announcement of a COVID-19 vaccine
commitment, especially on the stock market in the pharmaceutical and
biotechnology sector, especially on stock market reaction variables such as
abnormal returns, liquidity, price volatility, trading volume.
Based on the description
explained above, this study aims to analyze the
reaction of the capital market to the Covid 19 Pandemic by studying
biotechnology companies listed on the Nasdaq). So this research can provide an
overview of the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the capital market,
especially on biotechnology companies listed on NASDAQ. In this study,
researchers were able to identify factors that influenced the stock price
movements of biotechnology companies during the COVID-19 pandemic and explain
the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the capital market as a whole.
METHODS
The method used in this study uses a type of quantitative
method, namely research or
method based on empirical and concrete data, objective, observable, measurable,
rational, and systematic. This research uses an event study.
The type of data that will be used in this study is in the form of quantitative
data. The sampling method in this study was carried out using a non-probability
random sampling approach. This research focuses more on the announcement of the
COVID-19 pandemic outbreak issued by WHO and the announcement of the commitment
to produce the COVID-19 vaccine for the period from October 2019 to December
2021, especially its effect on changes in stock prices, stock trading volume on
the capital market, liquidity, and volatility due to announcements. The
COVID-19 pandemic and the announcement of the commitment to produce a COVID-19
vaccine are some pieces of information that contain economic value for the
market. This research period was chosen because it is the latest data and has
complete information. The data analysis method used in this research is a
statistical analysis method using multiple regression equations.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The WHO's announcement of the COVID-19
pandemic affected the abnormal return (AR) of Biotech companies on the NASDAQ
stock market.
H1 in this
study is: "There are differences in the abnormal returns on the stock
returns of biotech companies listed on the NASDAQ stock market between before
and after the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic by WHO". If using a
95% confidence level, the AR value does not have a significant value or is
greater than 0.05, but if using a 90% confidence level, the AR value has a significant
value or less than 0.10 during the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic by
WHO. This shows that the H1 hypothesis can be accepted, so it can be concluded
that there is a significant AR around the occurrence of the announcement of the
COVID-19 pandemic by WHO and indicates
investors are responding to the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic. Figure 3
shows investors obtaining abnormal returns
inconsistently. In several periods before and after investors obtained negative
abnormal returns, things like this indicated that investors were more inclined
to sell securities, as indicated by most observations that the value of abnormal returns was
negative throughout the observation period.
Figure 3. Graph of Abnormal Returns for Biotech
Companies
during the Announcement Period of the
COVID-19 Pandemic by WHO
Source: Processed data (2022)
The study
results show that the H1 hypothesis is accepted. There is a difference in
abnormal stock returns of biotech companies listed on the NASDAQ stock market
between before and after the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic by WHO. The
study results show that the abnormal return value after being lower than before
the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic by WHO. This shows that the market is
responding to the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic by WHO. At the time of
the announcement, investors did not trust biotech companies that could provide
returns or profits with predictions of future profits, especially during the
health crisis period. This is also because investors can see or predict that
the return they will get will not be higher than the expected return. Apart
from that, it can also be caused because investors do not anticipate the
announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic by WHO.
Previous
similar findings by (Alam et al., 2020). The results of this study are also consistent with
those (of Liu et al., 2020);
the results showed a significant abnormal return. In other words, investors
think that outbreaks of infectious diseases benefit the stock performance of
biotechnology companies, but a health crisis can affect the stock performance
of biotechnology companies; This shows that the health crisis events change
investors' judgments and can explain why there are significant abnormal
returns.
H2 in this study, namely: "There is a difference
in abnormal stock returns for biotech companies listed on the NASDAQ stock
market between before and after the announcement of the commitment to produce
the COVID-19 vaccine". The abnormal return has a significant value of less
than 0.05 during the announcement of the commitment to vaccine production,
which can be seen in most of the period. This shows that the H2 hypothesis can
be accepted, so it can be concluded that there are differences in the abnormal
returns on the stock returns of biotech companies listed on the NASDAQ stock
market between before and after the announcement of the commitment to produce
the COVID-19 vaccine. Figure 4 shows
investors obtaining abnormal returns inconsistently. There were several periods when investors obtained
negative abnormal returns; something like this indicated that investors were
more inclined to sell securities, but it was also observed that there were positive abnormal returns during
some periods of the announcement of the commitment to produce the COVID-19
vaccine.
Figure 4. Graph of Abnormal Returns of Biotech
Companies in
�the Commitment Announcement Period for
COVID-19 Vaccine Production
The results of the study show that the H2 hypothesis can
be accepted, and it can be said that there is a difference in the abnormal
return on the shares of biotech companies listed on the NASDAQ stock market
between before and after the announcement of the commitment to produce the
COVID-19 vaccine. The results show that the abnormal return value after is
lower than before the announcement of the vaccine production commitment to
COVID-19. This shows that the market is responding by announcing a commitment to
producing a COVID-19 vaccine. Investors do not trust biotech companies that can
provide returns or profits with predictions of profits to be obtained in the
future, especially during a health crisis. This is also because investors can
see or predict that the return they will get will not be higher than the
expected return. It can also be caused because investors do not anticipate the
announcement of the COVID-19 vaccine commitment.
The data from this study are partially similar to
previous research (Wang et al., 2013). Studies show significantly positive abnormal returns before the
announcement and significantly negative abnormal returns after the announcement (Wang et al., 2013). This may be due to reactions from news
announcements by investors that biotech companies are considered an alternative
stock investment because biotech companies can act as defensive stocks when
market conditions are experiencing unfavorable conditions such as COVID-19.
While infectious diseases spread, the demand for products, medical supplies, and
consumables increases, and investors expect the company's operating income to
increase significantly. It is still being determined whether it will benefit
the market performance of the pharmaceutical category when the infectious
disease spreads; investors consider the risk of holding shares too high and
start selling shares; the share price started significantly lower after the
third day. The results of this study are the following (Wang et al., 2013) revealed that the abnormal return hypothesis was responded to or
significant around the announcement of the commitment to produce the COVID-19
vaccine. Medical products related to the COVID-19 pandemic, with investors
selling their shares significantly.
H3 in this
study is: "There is a significant TVA around the event of the announcement
of the COVID-19 pandemic by WHO". The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic
can be seen in most periods having a significant value of less than 0.05. This
shows that the H3 hypothesis can be accepted, so it can be concluded that there
was a significant TVA during the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic and indicated that investors responded to the announcement of
the commitment to produce a COVID-19 vaccine. Figure 4. shows investor activity
experiencing a significant decrease in stock
transaction volume due to the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic by WHO, and this decline was indicated before the announcement.
The results showed that the TVA decreased significantly at the time of the
announcement, and there was an increase in TVA on the 3rd, fifth, and ninth
days. When the WHO announced COVID-19, expectations for medical
products increased, and investors expected the company's operating income to
increase significantly. Investors need to be clearer about whether the COVID-19
pandemic will benefit the performance of the biotech stock market; therefore,
as the infectious disease continues to spread, investors perceive the risk of
conducting stock transactions as too high; Stock transaction volume began to
fall after the announcement. These results
align with research conducted by (Onali, 2020), which examined the impact of news of the deaths of COVID-19
victims in the US on transaction volume on the Dow Jones stock market. The decline in share transaction volume
occurred due to decreased share buying and selling activity.
Figure 5. Graph of the Company's Trading Volume Activities
Biotech in WHO COVID-19 Pandemic Announcement Period
Source: Processed data (2022)
Hypothesis
H3 in this study is: "There are differences in Trading Volume Activities
of biotech companies listed on the NASDAQ stock market between before and after
the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic by WHO." The effect of the WHO's
announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic can be seen in most periods having a
significant value of less than 0.05. The results of the study show that the H3
hypothesis is accepted. It can be said that there are differences in the
Trading Volume Activities of biotech companies listed on the NASDAQ stock
market before. After the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic by WHO, H3 can
be accepted, shown by the significant differences in TVA before and after the
announcement. This was due to the market response to the announcement of the
COVID-19 pandemic by WHO. Investors believe biotech companies can provide
alternative stocks to obtain returns or profits with predicted profits.
However, research results show that the WHO's announcement of the COVID-19
pandemic caused the company's actual return to be lower than expected by
investors. The company does not see an expected stock price compared to the
stock price before the announcement, so investors are not interested in the
biotech company's shares. This could also be due to information on the
announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic by WHO, causing investment in biotech
companies to be considered less prospective by investors in the future, so
investors did not want to invest in the shares of these biotech companies; this
was what caused the effect of a decrease in trading activity during the
announcement period. COVID-19 pandemic by WHO.
According
to research, the impact of the COVID-19 announcement by the WHO lowered the
value of market capitalization during the study period (Indrayono,
2021). However, investors prefer to
trade with companies whose market influence has solid long-term value in
several financial factors. In this study, trading volume aligns with WHO's
announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is considered a trend. Significant
trading activity when the market is in an uptrend. This means that the announcement
of the COVID-19 pandemic by WHO has affected trading volume, which shows
biotech stock market investors reacting to the news of the announcement due to
consideration of biotech companies being an alternative for stock investment in
the temporary period during the pandemic even though biotech companies have
publicly stated that they do not plan to get benefit from this COVID 19
pandemic.
The announcement of the commitment to produce a COVID-19 vaccine
has affected the Biotech company's TVA on the NASDAQ stock market.
Hypothesis H4 in this study is: "There
are differences in Trading Volume Activities of biotech companies listed on the
NASDAQ stock market between before and after the announcement of the commitment
to produce the COVID-19 vaccine". The effect of the announcement of the
commitment to produce the COVID-19 vaccine can be seen in that most periods
have a significant value of less than 0.05. This shows that the H4 hypothesis
can be accepted, so it can be concluded that there was a significant TVA during
the announcement of the commitment to produce the COVID-19 vaccine and indicated that investors responded to the announcement of
the commitment to produce the COVID-19 vaccine. Figure 4.4 shows that investor
activity experienced a
significant increase in stock transaction volume on day one after the
announcement of the commitment to produce the COVID-19 vaccine. The results
showed that TVA decreased from day 2 to day 10. When the announcement of the
commitment to produce a COVID-19 vaccine occurred, expectations for medical
products increased, and investors expected the company's operating income to
increase significantly. It is unclear whether the COVID-19 pandemic will
benefit the performance of the biotech stock market; therefore, as the infectious
disease continues to spread, investors perceive the risk of trading in stocks
as too high. These results align with research conducted by (Onali, 2020),
which examined the impact of news of the
deaths of COVID-19 victims in the US on transaction volume on the Dow Jones
stock market. The
decline in share transaction volume occurred due to decreased share buying and
selling activity.
Source: Processed data (2022)
The effect of the WHO's
announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic can be seen in that most of the period
has a significant value of less than 0.05. The results of the study show that
the H4 hypothesis is accepted, and it can be said that there is a significant
TVA between before and after the announcement; this is because the market
responds to the announcement of the COVID-19 vaccine commitment, investors do
not trust biotech companies that can provide returns or profits with
predictable profits. Obtained in the future. This is also because the actual
return given by the company is like what investors expect. The company sees no
expected stock price compared to the stock price before the announcement.
Hence, investors are not interested in the biotech company's shares; this can
also be caused because the prospects for biotech companies during the COVID-19
pandemic are not convincing, so investors do not want to invest in biotech
company stocks. This causes the effect of trading volume activity before and after
the announcement that there is a TVA to decrease significantly.
According to research, the impact
of the COVID-19 announcement by the WHO lowered the value of market
capitalization during the study period (Indrayono, 2021). However, investors prefer to trade with companies whose market
influence has solid long-term value in several financial factors. This study indicates that some investors
respond to announcements, and there are several considerations for investing in
biotech companies as an alternative to stock investment. Trading activity will
increase when the market is in an uptrend, and trading activity will decrease
when the market is in a downtrend. This means that trading volume can be used to
predict the trend at that time. Trading activity can measure the enthusiasm of
buyers and sellers in the biotech stock market. During an uptrend market, a
trading volume that does not increase can be caused by an increase in sellers
not in line with the enthusiasm of buyers.
The announcement of the COVID 19 pandemic by WHO affected the liquidity
of Biotech company shares on the NASDAQ stock market.
H5 in this study is: "There are
differences in the Liquidity of the Shares of biotech companies listed on the
NASDAQ stock market between before and after the announcement of the COVID-19
pandemic by WHO." The effect of the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic
by WHO can be seen in that most of the period does not have a significant value
or is greater than 0.05. This shows that the H5 hypothesis cannot be accepted,
so it can be concluded that there was insignificant stock liquidity during the
announcement of the commitment to produce the COVID-19 vaccine. Figure 4.5 shows the lowest stock liquidity owned by
Oragenics, Inc. (OGEN), while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has the highest
liquidity.
Figure
7. Graph of Liquidity of Biotech Companies during the Announcement
Period of the COVID 19 Pandemic by WHO
Source: Processed data (2022)
The
research results related to the effect of the announcement of the COVID-19
pandemic by WHO on stock liquidity are in line with those carried out by (Chebbi et al., 2021) and (Ingale & Paluri, 2022). The stock
markets studied were the S&P 500 and the MENA stock markets; the results
indicated that the announcement significantly impacted the stock market. The
study covers stock markets in the S&P 500 representing stocks traded on the
New York and NASDAQ stock markets and 314 listed companies operating in six
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. It is not specific to stock
markets operating in the biotechnology sector. This study shows that the WHO's
announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic has no effect on the biotech stock
market, as indicated by the liquidity value. The biotech stock market seems to
be giving signals to investors, stating that the company has the same liquidity
value both before and after the announcement, so it can be said that the
information regarding the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic by WHO, which
was reported had no effect on the liquidity of the biotech stock market on the
stock market. NASDAQ.
The announcement
of
the commitment to produce the COVID-19 vaccine affected the
liquidity of the Biotech company's shares on the NASDAQ stock market.
H6 in this study, "There is a difference
in the liquidity of shares of biotech companies listed on the NASDAQ stock
market between before and after the announcement of the commitment to produce the COVID-19 vaccine. " from 0.05. This shows that the H6 hypothesis
cannot be accepted, so it can be concluded that there was insignificant stock
liquidity during the announcement of the commitment to produce the COVID-19
vaccine. Figure 8 shows the
lowest stock liquidity owned by Oragenics, Inc. (OGEN), while Johnson &
Johnson (JNJ) has the highest liquidity.
Figure
8. Graph of Biotech Company Liquidity at
Announcement Period for COVID 19 Vaccine Production Commitment
Source: Processed data (2022)
The results
of research related to the effect of the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic
by the WHO on stock liquidity were carried out by (Chebbi et
al., 2021) and (Ingale &
Paluri, 2022). The stock
markets studied were the S&P 500 stock market and the MENA stock market,
and the results showed that the stock market was significantly negatively
affected by the announcement. The study covers stock markets in the S&P 500
representing stocks traded on the New York and NASDAQ stock markets and 314
listed companies operating in six Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
countries. It is not specific to stock markets operating in the biotechnology
sector. The results of this study indicate that research specifically on the
stock market engaged in the biotechnology sector was not negatively affected
during the pandemic period, possibly due to information related to the
announcement of a commitment to producing a COVID-19 vaccine.
The results also showed
no difference in the average liquidity of biotech company stocks on the NASDAQ
stock market before and after the announcement, indicating that these results
are the same as previous studies. Has been conducted by (Vaverkov� et
al., 2020) on US stock market liquidity (S&P500)
with a short period (30 days) of information on total confirmed cases and
deaths in twelve countries and market movements. This study, based on a longer
time series, verified the robustness of this finding.
The WHO's announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic affected the volatility of Biotech company shares on the NASDAQ stock market.
Volatility
Pattern Analysis
H7 in this study is: "There is a
difference in the volatility of the stock volatility of biotech companies
listed on the NASDAQ stock market between before and after the announcement of
the COVID-19 pandemic by WHO." The effect of the announcement of the
COVID-19 pandemic can be seen in that most periods have a significant value of
less than 0.05. This shows that the H7 hypothesis can be accepted, so it can be
concluded that there was significant stock volatility during the announcement
of the COVID-19 pandemic WHO. Figure
4.7 shows the volatility of stocks before and after the announcement of the
COVID-19 pandemic WHO.
Figure
8. Graph of Return Volatility during the Announcement
Period of the COVID 19 Pandemic by WHO
Source: Processed data (2022)
The
results of the study show that volatility after it is lower than before the
announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic by WHO. The study results show that the
announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic influences changes in the market price of
biotech stocks on the NASDAQ. This can be caused by market prices that tend to
be lower than the price of the shares previously offered so that price
fluctuations occur on the stock exchange.
Good
news causes less volatility when compared to bad news. This pattern of response
doubled during the COVID-19 pandemic. When the health crisis is considered a
bad event, market players wait for good news about the response to the health
crisis by biotech companies to minimize volatility in the stock market. This
study's results align with research that has been conducted (Onali,
2020).
The announcement of
the commitment to produce the COVID-19 vaccine affected the
volatility of the Biotech company's shares on the NASDAQ stock market.
Volatility
Pattern Analysis
The coefficient Ɣ is negative except for
the moment after the announcement of the commitment to produce a COVID-19
vaccine with a significance level of 10%, indicating that the good news
indicated by the announcement of the commitment to produce a COVID-19 vaccine
causes less volatility when compared to bad news. This response pattern doubled
during a crisis but did not apply to biotech company stocks. This means that
when a crisis occurs, market players are waiting for good news about the
announcement of the COVID-19 vaccine as an effort to overcome the health crisis
by biotech companies to minimize volatility in the stock market.
The coefficient � on the index is not high,
indicating that the volatility in the biotech stock market does not last long. This condition is not much different in the period
before the announcement and at the time of the announcement. When the
announcement period took place in biotech stocks, it showed a persistence that was slightly
below the NASDAQ index stocks. This means
that the volatility of stock returns for biotech companies will stabilize more
quickly than stocks on the NASDAQ index. This is very likely related to the
composition of biotech stocks which are companies in the health sector. During
a pandemic, biotech stocks were considered to have the most up-to-date
information regarding policies to respond to health crises such as vaccine
production.
A high
coefficient α in the biotech stock market represents the magnitude of the symmetric effect of a shock. The coefficient α did not increase during the announcement period for vaccine production
commitments. This illustrates that the biotech stock market is classified as
insensitive and does not become more sensitive during a recession or crisis.
Nevertheless, from a comparison of the parameters of the symmetric effect of
the shock, biotech stocks are consistently more careful in responding to a
shock, both in the period before and during the announcement. In addition,
according to the relative scale between the coefficients, an asymmetric effect
of a shock on the market or a leverage effect occurs in the biotech stock
market.
In addition,
according to the relative scale between the coefficients, an asymmetric effect
of a shock on the market or a leverage effect did not occur in the biotech
stock market during the COVID-19 vaccine announcement period. It is said that there is no leverage effect because the
return volatility is not significant, and there is no price reduction.
The H8 in
this study is: "There is a difference in the volatility of the shares of
biotech companies listed on the NASDAQ stock market between before and after
the announcement of the commitment to produce the COVID-19 vaccine." The
effect of the announcement of the commitment to produce the COVID-19 vaccine
can be seen in that most periods have a significant value of less than 0.05.
This shows that the H8 hypothesis can be accepted, so it can be concluded that
there was significant stock volatility during the announcement of the
commitment to produce the COVID-19 vaccine. Figure 9 shows the volatility of
stocks before and after the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic WHO.
Figure 9 . Graph of Return Volatility in Announcement
�Period of Commitment to Production
of COVID-19 Vaccines
Source: Processed data (2022)
The results show that the volatility after it is lower
than before the announcement of the commitment to produce the COVID-19 vaccine.
Good news
causes less volatility when compared to bad news.
When
the COVID-19 pandemic occurs, the good news about the announcement of a
commitment to producing a COVID-19 vaccine as an effort to overcome the health
crisis by biotech companies can affect volatility in the stock market. This
study supports prospect theory. Based on the theory that people are more afraid
of failure than benefiting, if investors are given two choices, they will
choose the minimum loss opportunity even though the other alternative is for
the opportunity to make more profit. Likewise, during a pandemic, investors
will participate in stocks that show a lower level of volatility due to good
news information in the form of a commitment to producing a COVID-19 vaccine.
Research on the impact of COVID-19 on the stock market
has focused heavily on identifying the spread and impact of the disease.
Abnormal fluctuations in stock returns � factors that reflect investor behavior
directly to economic changes.
The behavioral theory explains phenomena related to
market trust, one of the factors that cause stock price volatility or even the
risk of transmitting information related to an epidemic, which then causes a
financial crisis. Matters such as the WHO's announcement of the COVID-19
pandemic and the announcement of the commitment to produce a COVID-19 vaccine
have caused increased attention to profit predictions that should influence
stock prices. Moreover, in theory, signals can give good or bad signals to
investors. In this study, it is in line that the announcement of the COVID-19
pandemic by WHO during the crisis period affected volatility returns and at the
time of the announcement of the commitment to produce the COVID-19 vaccine.
This shows that the announcement of the commitment to produce the COVID-19
vaccine is considered good news information that is of concern to investors so
that volatility return reflects stock fluctuations in the period in question
because it gives a signal to investors.
CONCLUSION
Based on research
conducted on biotech companies listed on the NASDAQ stock market, it can be
concluded that the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic by WHO and the
announcement of the commitment to produce a COVID-19 vaccine have a significant
effect on abnormal stock returns and Trading Volume Activities of biotech
companies. The announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic caused a decrease in
abnormal stock returns and trading activity. At the same time, the announcement
of a commitment to producing a COVID-19 vaccine also caused a decrease in
abnormal stock returns. However, it did not have a significant effect on stock
liquidity. From a theoretical point of view, the influence of these events is
related to signaling theory and market efficiency, as well as market reactions
to published information.
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